Broker Check

Market Commentary

June 07, 2021
Share |

• New Home Sales for the month of April decreased by -5.9%, ahead of expectations of a decline of -7.0%.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 117.2 in May from a prior reading of 121.7, missing
expectations of 118.8.
• Pending Home Sales decreased -4.4% in April, missing expectations of an increase of 0.4%
• Personal Income decreased -13.1% in April, ahead of expectations of a decrease of -14.2%
• Personal Spending increased 0.5% in April, in line with expectations
• The PCE Deflator increased 0.6% in April, in line with expectations, and is up 3.6% year-over-year
• Core PCE increased 0.7% in April, ahead of expectations, and is up 3.1% year-over-year
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 82.9 from a prior reading of 82.8
• Initial jobless claims came in at another pandemic era low with a reading of 406,000 new claims. This was below the
estimates of 425,000 and a drop from last week’s reading of 444,000.

INSIGHT: Although we saw personal income come in much lower than the prior month’s reading, this was expected as
the impact of one-time stimulus checks issued in March begin to dissipate. Still, households are flush with cash as the
personal savings rate remains extremely elevated at 14.9%. Importantly, personal spending continued its upward
trajectory as the economy continues to re-open and consumer spending drives this recovery. Consumer confidence
also remains elevated as demonstrated by the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and the University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. In the labor market, we continue to see people return to work as new filings for
unemployment continue to trend downward. Lastly, we received more evidence that inflation remains something to
keep an eye on, with headline PCE and core PCE coming in above 3% year-over-year.

• The ISM Manufacturing Index will be released on Tuesday and is expected to come in at 61.0, a slight increase from
the prior month’s reading of 60.7.
• The ISM Services Index will be released on Thursday and is expected to come in at 63.0, an increase from the prior
month’s reading of 62.7.
• The change in Nonfarm Payrolls for May will be released on Friday. Expectations are for an increase of 653,000, up
from last month’s reading of 266,000.

INSIGHT: Economic activity looks to continue its acceleration in the month of June, as manufacturing and services
readings are projected to come in firmly in expansion territory. After substantially missing expectations in April, May’s
reading for the change in nonfarm payrolls is expected to display a labor market that is regaining its footing. The
unemployment rate is expected to dip below 6%, a level that was not crossed until 2014 following the recession in
2008, which speaks to the pace of the current recovery.


Market Index Returns as of 5/28/21




1 YR



S&P 500














Dow Jones Industrial Average







Russell Mid-Cap







Russell 2000 (Small Cap)







MSCI EAFE (International)







MSCI Emerging Markets







Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond







Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp.







Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg







• U.S. equities moved higher this week as indicated by the S&P 500 which was up +1.20% on the week.
• In the U.S., smaller sized companies outperformed their larger-sized counterparts, as the Russell 2000 index gained
+2.45% on the week.
• International stocks as measured by the MSCI EAFE were positive on the week, up +1.22%, outperforming domestic
• Emerging market stocks were also positive on the week with the MSCI EM index up +2.39%.
• U.S. investment grade bonds were positive last week with the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index up

DOG DAYS OF SUMMER: The summer months of June-July-August are ranked 10th, 5th and 11th in terms of S&P 500
performance over the last 30 years, i.e., 1991-2020. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size,
liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock's weight in the index
proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).

LAST YEAR: Going into the 2021 Memorial Day holiday, the S&P 500 was up +12.6% YTD (total return). Going into the
2020 Memorial Day holiday, the S&P 500 was down 7.8% YTD (total return) (source: BTN Research).

HONEST?: The US government projected on Thursday 5/20/21 that an average US taxpayer pays 84% of his/her total
federal income tax bill (the underpayment of taxes is largely driven by unreported income), creating an estimated $584
billion annual “tax gap,” i.e., the difference between what all taxpayers should have paid each year compared to what
they actually paid (source: Treasury Department).

PHIL BEING PHIL: Before the beginning of the 4-day PGA Championship golf tournament, one bettor wagered $1,000
on Phil Mickelson to win when the odds were 300-to-1 that the 50-year old would come out on top, i.e., the gambler
won $300,000. Mickelson, winning his 45th career PGA event, won $2.16 million, pushing his career earnings to $94.6
million before tax (source: DraftKings Sportsbook).

Economic Definitions
Initial Jobless Claims: Initial unemployment claims track the number of people who have filed jobless claims for the first time during the
specified period with the appropriate government labor office. This number represents an inflow of people receiving unemployment

New Home Sales: This concept tracks sales of newly constructed homes during the reference period. The Implicit US index is computed by
taking the number of houses sold in the US and dividing it by the seasonally adjusted number of houses sold in
the US.

Pending Home Sales: This concept tracks signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops that have not yet
closed. As such it is a leading indicator for existing home sales.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Consumer confidence tracks sentiment among households or consumers. The results
are based on surveys conducted among a random sample of households. Target Audience: representative sample of US households
(excluding Alaska and Hawaii). Surveys of Consumers collects data on consumer attitudes and expectations summarized in the Consumer
Sentiment, in order to determine the changes in consumers' willingness to buy and to predict their subsequent discretionary expenditures.
This Index is comprised of measures of attitudes toward personal finances, general business conditions, and market conditions or prices.
Components of the Index of Consumer Sentiment are included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index. Unit: Index (Q1 1966=100)

Personal Income: Consumer or Household Income (often referred to as personal income) tracks all income received by households
including such things as wages and salaries, investment income, rental income, transfer payments, etc. This concept is not adjusted for

Personal Spending: Consumer or Household Spending (also referred to as consumption) tracks consumer expenditures on goods and
services. This concept is not adjusted for inflation.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: The Consumer Confidence Survey® reflects prevailing business conditions and likely
developments for the months ahead. This monthly report details consumer attitude, buying intentions, vacation plans and consumer
expectation for inflation, stock prices and interest rates. Data are data available by age, income, region and top 8 states.

PCE (headline and core): PCE deflators (or personal consumption expenditure deflators) track overall price changes for goods and services
purchased by consumers. Deflators are calculated by dividing the appropriate nominal series by the corresponding real series and
multiplying by 100.

ISM Manufacturing Index: PMI Surveys track sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturing, construction and/or services firms.
An overall sentiment index is generally calculated from the results of queries on production, orders, inventories, employment, prices, etc.

Nonfarm Payrolls: This indicator measures the number of employees on business payrolls. It is also sometimes referred to as establishment
survey employment to distinguish it from the household survey measure of employment.

Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate tracks the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labor force (the total
number of employed plus unemployed). These figures generally come from a household labor force survey.

ISM Services Index: PMI Surveys track sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturing, construction and/or services firms. An
overall sentiment index is generally calculated from the results of queries on production, orders, inventories, employment, prices, etc.
Target Audience: supply management professionals Sample Size: 300 individuals Date of Survey: through the month The Services Index is a
composite index of four indicators with equal weights: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries. An index
reading above 50% indicates an expansion and below 50% indicates a decline in the non-manufacturing economy. Whereas per Supplier
Deliveries Index, above 50% indicates slower deliveries and below 50% indicates faster deliveries.

Index Definitions
S&P 500: The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range
of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select,
Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the
leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Russell Mid-Cap: Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which
represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index.

Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8%
of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The real-time value is calculated with a base value of 135.00 as
of December 31, 1986. The end-of-day value is calculated with a base value of 100.00 as of December 29, 1978.

MSCI EAFE: The MSCI EAFE Index is a free-float weighted equity index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December
31, 1969. The MSCI EAFE region covers DM countries in Europe, Australasia, Israel, and the Far East.

MSCI EM: The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid-cap representation
across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond: The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures
the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and
corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp: The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high
yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+
or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition,
are excluded.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg: The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt
from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized
fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers.

Index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses, and if deducted, performance would be reduced. Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not
able to invest directly into any index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect again loss. In general, the bond market is volatile;
bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed-income security sold or redeemed prior to
maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss. Vehicles that invest in lower-rated debt securities (commonly referred to as junk bonds or high-yield bonds) involve
additional risks because of the lower credit quality of the securities in the portfolio. International investing involves special risks not present with U.S. investments due to
factors such as increased volatility, currency fluctuation, and differences in auditing and other financial standards. These risks can be accentuated in emerging markets.

The statements provided herein are based solely on the opinions of the Advisor Group Research Team and are being provided for general information purposes only. Neither
the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Any opinions provided herein should
not be relied upon for investment decisions and may differ from those of other departments or divisions of Advisor Group or its affiliates.

Certain information may be based on information received from sources the Advisor Group Research Team considers reliable; however, the accuracy and completeness of
such information cannot be guaranteed. Certain statements contained herein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking statements” which do not
reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions,
projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein reflect the judgment of the Advisor Group Research Team only as of the date of this document and
are subject to change without notice. Advisor Group has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements.
Advisor Group is not soliciting or recommending any action based on any information in this document.

Securities and investment advisory services are offered through the firms: FSC Securities Corporation, Royal Alliance Associates, Inc., SagePoint Financial, Inc., Triad Advisors,
LLC, and Woodbury Financial Services, Inc., broker-dealers, registered investment advisers, and members of FINRA and SIPC. Securities are offered through Securities America,
Inc., a broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Arbor Point Advisors, LLC, Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, Inc., Securities
America Advisors, Inc., and Triad Hybrid Solutions, LLC, registered investment advisers. Advisory programs offered by FSC Securities Corporation, Royal Alliance Associates,
Inc., SagePoint Financial, Inc., and Woodbury Financial Services, Inc., are sponsored by VISION2020 Wealth Management Corp., an affiliated registered investment
adviser. Advisor Group, Inc. is an affiliate of these firms. [23328489]

1 Data Obtained from Bloomberg as of 5/28/2021